Forecast for Stoddard County -- 1 p.m. Wednesday

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER

EVENT ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BUT STARTING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN...PRECIPITATION TOTALS THUS FAR

HAVE WORKED OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE THINKING. OVERALL...RADAR

ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH

RANGE IN A BAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE

FOCUSING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ...WHICH WOULD

IMPACT PRIMARILY WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS A

RESULT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT BLAST OF

ARCTIC AIR IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL

THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING

RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE

MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW LONG DOES THE SLEET PERSIST

BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL INPUT...IT

APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS SEVERAL HOURS.

THE WARMER MID LEVELS OF THE NAM NOW HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE

RAP...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE

CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...THOUGH IT IS STILL COLDER THAN THE OTHER

MODELS.

GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN NOT ONLY THE

CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT ALSO THE

TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIXED

PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL LATE

MORNING...AND IT MAY BE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE

HOPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED

OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING...BUT IT MAY BE MID EVENING BEFORE IT IS

COMPLETELY SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL

CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM

NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE

AND WPC. INTERESTINGLY...EVEN THROUGH THE SLEET WILL LIKELY CUT

DOWN ON ACCUMULATION TODAY...THE SNOW TONIGHT IS NOW FORECAST TO

PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION. THE END RESULT IS A TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TO THAT

END...WE EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES

NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES IN A BAND

20 TO 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIKESTON MISSOURI TO PADUCAH

KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. AMOUNTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE

BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES LESS GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION

OF SLEET THERE. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE

FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET. HOWEVER...

ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH

ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY

FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER TOP

A SNOW COVERED GROUND. BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE

FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES...AND PROBABLY COLDER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WE START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE

MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE VERY COLD

AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH START OF DAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE

DIGITS. THE HIGH CENTERS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE

TN VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW IS SLOW

TO GET GOING AND EVEN WITH ABOUT A 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE...IT

MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF NOT REACHING 32 DEGREES...HAVING TO WAIT TIL

THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS

SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN CHANCES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE EXIST AS SMALL

PIECES OF ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF

TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32F FOR

THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF

CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN LOW-MID 40S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY

IN THE 20S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS A BROAD

AREA OF CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO/THRU THE

EARLY WEEK PERIOD. RETURN FLOW SLYS ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB THRU THE

40S MONDAY...INTO THE 50S TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FLIRT WITH THE 60

DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE

30S.